How to Beat a Russian Bear
A Hot Take About Which I Have No Expertise
My message today is really a re-up of what I suggested before: air action over Ukraine. Then, it was NATO. Today I suggest something quieter and a bit more clever. Given that Trump has been reelected, Putin is right now like a bride in waiting. He must be crafting many plans on how to dupe and exploit his favorite useful idiot. My proposal leverages against him, to Ukraine’s advantage, the excited anticipation he’s no-doubt feeling. We all know Trump has promised to resolve the war in a day. We also know that boast is really a promise to sell-out our allies, after all their brave fighting for freedom and democracy. (It’s also the case that there’ve been indications from Russia lately that they may ignore Trump’s peace initiative and fight on through to Kyiv, so any help now really matters.)
Here's the thing: Biden is still president and of course will be until January 20th, 2025. Within his capacity, I assume he can find a legal way to launch an air attack on any and all Russian assets and personnel in Ukraine as he sees fit. (If he can’t find a legal way, no worries, the Supreme Court just granted absolute criminal immunity to the president so really there’s nothing stopping him—especially with something like his core war powers; so, Biden can do it.) Wreaking havoc on Russian positions can give Ukraine a real fighting chance (though it be winter conditions) to take back as much territory as they can before the inevitable Trump-led peace “negotiation” (i.e. subjugation). In secret coordinated fashion, such a strike or series of strikes could completely surprise Russia and allow Ukraine to possibly launch of a wave of aggressive ground movements to retake what is theirs. All of these actions must be covert. We must give Putin a way to hold his tongue and cover his valor. Because, that he will want to do.
Here’s the crux of the argument: Putin is just days away from his golden boy Trump arriving in the White House. He surely has great plans to be as chummy as can be with Trump and usher in a new age of cooperation, puppet strings included. There’re likely planning great displays of cooperation to remake the image of Russia in American minds, with the help of the Republican party, which has completely sold out democracy in America, and seemingly, leadership in the world. Therefore, the last thing Putin will want to do is be on the spot to have to publicly react to an American attack on his personnel and materiel. He’ll be as happy to sweep it under the rug as anyone. He has no real alternative. If he wants to respond militarily to the American attack, he has only very escalatory options. America has few military personnel in Ukraine and those could be pulled out just after commencement of hostilities. That leaves Russia no comparable target: American military personnel in Ukraine. (Except of course the planes themselves, which are designed for evasive countermeasures.)
Actions against America or American interests internationally runs the risk of creating a further American response, this time publicly. The last thing in the world Putin wants or needs is to engage militarily with the United States at this time. Why would he? Soon enough, in a very real way, with his own Manchurian Candidate he will be able to conquer America in many real ways without firing a shot. If instead he engages in action against Americans and kills Americans, that would be a serious obstacle to what must be his vast plans to expand Russian influence with the help of the American President. Americans—even Republican Americans—will not tolerate American deaths at the hands of Russia and surely Putin is wise and clever enough to know it. In the worst case, Russia does respond mildly and makes it difficult for the Trump-Putin alliance to blossom as they hope, or as soon anyhow.
By my calculation, Putin will take this on the chin rather than blow up the relationship over the actions of an out-going president when the income one is going to be his best buddy. He certainly will not do anything so self-defeating as declaring war upon us and thereby bringing the wrath, potentially, of all of NATO upon him when he’s so close to another kind of victory here. He is hoping to get rid of NATO quietly via Trump’s compliance he does not want to fight it.
The beauty of this plan is that it uses the corrupt plans between Putin and Trump against them while (hopefully) dramatically benefitting our brave Ukrainian freedom fighters, who we will soon have, in all other ways, failed. At a point of our choosing, presumably after a peaceful end to the war, American intelligence officials can leak the facts around the American air intervention to embarrass Putin (after the fact) and perhaps anger his public enough to make cozying up to Trump a little more difficult, which is surely in our own national interest.
Slava Ukraini!